There is a lot of interest in the Hugo Awards for the upcoming WorldCon, Loncon 3, and how nominations might be affected by a return to the UK.
There’s no reliable way at all of telling how a change of venue will impact on the ballot in any year, but personally I hope the UK votership is active and has a huge impact on the final ballot.
Here are links to the Hugo ballots for previous UK WorldCons.
Looking at these, the impact seems to have varied over time, but the most recent one (2005) has a strong UK flavour so I’m hopeful that might happen again this year.
On the one hand, I’m still sceptical that there will be a strong UK effect this time, because I think the shift to giving both shoulder years Hugo voting rights dilutes local effects. Which is not to say there won’t be British authors on the ballot: I’d be very surprised if Gaiman isn’t there, for instance, and Stross probably has a good shot. But at the moment I’m not expecting to see many nominees who wouldn’t otherwise be nominated — Gaiman and Stross would have a decent shot wherever the Worldcon was held. And if there is UK effect it may not be British authors who are actually nominated — I think both Lavie Tidhar and Lauren Beukes are more likely nominees this year than they have been in the past, for instance.
On the other hand, I may be wrong in my perception of which novels are front-runners this year — the BSFA shortlist may give us a clue or two, when it comes out, since I imagine most people who vote in the BSFA awards are this year also going to be Hugo voters — and it may also be the case that in the short fiction categories, where the total number of ballots cast is usually smaller, a local effect is more likely. I’d love to see Nina Allan in Best Novella this year, as I’ve mentioned before.
I think the BSFA list could be an indicator. I also notice that quite often local voting mostly impacts on the “minor” categories like semiprozine, related work etc. I could easily imagine Interzone picking up a well deserved Hugo. I actually would be surprised to see Tidhar or Beukes up for Best Novel. Stross or Reynolds are much more likely. Gaiman will be, or I would be very surprised if he isn’t nominated. It would be justified. I wonder if Stan Robinson might make it for Shaman. Ancillary Justice is a wildcard. It could well be up, and if it’s up, it could well win.
Much more likely? In Charlie’s case perhaps – I also enjoyed Neptune’s Brood – but I’ve only had one Hugo nomination in my career, and that wasn’t for a novel. I didn’t get on any of the ballots in 2005 either, so I don’t think the UK factor is a big advantage in my case.
I find it mystifying that your work hasn’t been better recognised by the Hugo votership. You’ve been writing better and better novels, pushing what you do while writing the “core SF” that the readership responds to. And you’re widely read. Absolutely mystifying. I would expect you and Stephen Baxter both to have done much, much better from the Hugos. I genuinely hope this year will be different. On a Steel Breeze would make a very worthy Best Novel nominee.